Liquidity when it matters : QE and Tobin’s q

When financial markets freeze in fear, borrowing costs for solvent governments may fall towards zero in a flight to quality – but credit-worthy private borrowers can be starved of external funding. In Kiyotaki and Moore (2008), where liquidity crisis is captured by the effective rationing of private credit, tightening credit constraints have direct effects on investment. If prices are sticky, the effects on aggregate demand can be pronounced – as reported by FRBNY for the US economy using a calibrated DSGE-style framework modified to include such frictions. In such an environment, two factors stand out. First the recycling of credit flows by central banks can dramatically ease credit-rationing faced by private investors: this is the rationale for Quantitative Easing. Second, revenue-neutral fiscal transfers aimed at would-be investors can have similar effects. We show these features in a stripped- down macro model of inter-temporal optimisation subject to credit constraints

Inertia in Taylor Rules

The inertia found in econometric estimates of interest rate rules is a continuing puzzle. Many reasons for it have been offered, though unsatisfactorily, and the issue remains open. In the empirical literature on interest rate rules, inertia in setting interest rates is typically modeled by specifying a Taylor rule with the lagged policy rate on the right hand side. We argue that inertia in the policy rule may simply reflect the inertia in the economy itself, since optimal rules typically inherit the inertia present in the model of the economy. Our hypothesis receives some support from US data. Hence we agree with Rudebusch (2002) that monetary inertia is, at least partly, an illusion, but for different reasons.Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Rules, Taylor rule, Interest Rate Smoothing, Monetary Policy Inertia, Predictability of Interest Rates, Term Structure, Expectations Hypothesis

Unconventional monetary policy in the Euro zone

The European Central Bank adopted a policy of quantitative easing early in 2015, long after the US and UK, and after implementing a succession of measures to increase liquidity in the Euro zone financial markets, none of which proved sufficient eventually. The paper draws out lessons for the Euro zone from US and UK experience. Numerous event studies have been undertaken to uncover the effects of QE on yields on and prices of financial assets. Estimated effects on long-term government bond yields are then converted into the size of the cut in the policy rate that would normally have been needed to produce them. From these implicit cuts in policy rates, estimates of the effect on GDP and inflation are generated. Euro zone QE appears to have had a much smaller effect on bond yields for the core members states than did QE in the US or UK. Therefore its effects on output and inflation are likely to be proportionately smaller. Its effects on long-term government bond yields in periphery members are greater. QE is compressing interest differential among Euro zone member states. The dangers of QE to which various commentators draw attention, that it creates a danger of inflation in the future, that it creates asset price bubbles, that it allows zombie firms and banks to survive, slowing down the process of adjustment, seem remote. Meanwhile it makes a useful contribution to cutting the costs of debt service and allowing member states more fiscal room for maneouvre

Real options with priced regime-switching risk

We develop a model of regime-switching risk premia as well as regimedependent factor risk premia to price real options. The model incorporates the observation that the underlying risky income streams of real options are subject to discrete shifts over time as well as random changes. The presence of discrete shifts is due to systematic and unsystematic risk associated with changes in business cycles or in economic policy regimes or events such as takeovers, major changes in business plans. We analyze the impact of regime switching behavior on the valuation of projects and investment opportunities. We find that accounting for Markov switching risk results in a delay in the expected timing of the investment while the regime-specific factor risk premia make the possibility of a regime shift more pronounced

An Empirical Examination of Term Structure Models with Regime Shifts

We examine several continuous-time term structure models in which the short rate is subject both to continuous changes and to discrete shifts. Several regime-switching term structure models are developed, with regime-dependence in various combinations of their drift and diffusion parameters. We examine their predictive power. Our empirical analysis suggests that it is important to attempt to specify the switching model correctly: badly parameterized switching models may not be an improvement (in terms of pricing) over models which do not allow for regime switching, even when there are clear breaks in the data.term structure of interest rates, bond yields, stochastic discount factor/pricing kernel, regime switching

Optimal monetary policy with a regime-switching exchange rate in a forward-looking model

We evaluate the macroeconomic performance of different monetary policy rules when there is exchange rate uncertainty. We do this in the context of a non-linear rational expectations model. The exchange rate is allowed to deviate from its fundamental value and the persistence of the deviation is modeled as a Markov switching process. Our results suggest that taking into account the switching nature of the economy is important only in extreme cases.Exchange Rates, Monetary Policy, Markov Switching.

Taxation and Excess Burden: A Life-Cycle Perspective

A lifetime perspective is appropriate in assessing the welfare implications of government tax policies. Although a number of attempts have been made to ex- amine the excess burden of taxation in life-cycle models, these have tended to ignore the role of human capital accumulation and/or the leisure-income choice. In this paper, we do numerical simulations with a model that takes both of these phenomena into account. We find that under reasonable assumptions, the failure to take into account distortions of human capital decisions produces substantial underestimates of the excess burden of income taxation. In addition, allowing for the endogeneity of human capital increases the efficiency of a personal consumption tax relative to that of an equal yield income tax.

The effects of different parameterizations of Markov-switching in a CIR model of bond pricing

We examine several discrete-time versions of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (CIR) model for the term structure, in which the short rate is subject to discrete shifts. Our empirical analysis suggests that careful consideration of which parameters of the short-term interest rate equation that are allowed to be switched is crucial. Ignoring this issue may result in a parameterization that produces no improvement (in terms of bond pricing) relative to the standard CIR model, even when there are clear breaks in the data

No credit for transition: efficiency wages, the Maastricht Treaty and German unemployment

Germany is generally regarded as the nominal anchor for Europe. Its participation is the sine qua non of EMU. It has been the largest net contributor to EU finances, the leading proponent of greater economic and political union, and the leading example of the virtues of fiscal and monetary rectitude as enshrined in the Maastricht treaty. However, reunified Germany combines the prosperous western state with the transitional eastern economy, and the burdens of combining the two roles, that of being an example of fiscal and monetary prudence for the EU on the one hand, and that of financing the transition of the former East Germany on the other, are leading to high unemployment, are slowing the transition process, and may become insupportable. We argue here that Germany should be viewed as part of the problem rather than its treatment

Inflation targeting, exchange rate volatility and international policy coordination

In a linear rational expectations two-country model, using an ag- gregate demand, aggregate supply framework, we analyse the ejects of the adoption of an inflation targeting regime on exchange rate volatility and the possible scope for policy oordination. This analysis is conducted using optimized interest rate policy rules within a calibrated model. Rules for interest rates that respond either to exchange rates or to portfolio hocks give improved performance and permit gains from international coordination. Optimized aylor rules perform relatively well